FLOODING ESTIMATES Herbert Could Face $25-50M In Cane Industry Losses

Queensland Cane Agriculture and Renewables (QCAR) estimates there could be up to one million fewer tonnes of cane cut across the Herbert this year, resulting in between $25 to $50 million in economic losses. 
However, the impacts of recent flooding in the Hinchinbrook Shire have yet to be realised because the waters are still receding. 
Early indications indicate significant crop losses and infrastructure damage to farms, drains, the cane rail network, machinery, and plants.
How does the flooding disaster impact cane yields?
It is difficult to estimate the crop losses associated with this severe event, but history tells us that saturated soil and waterlogging can severely impact yields. As soil pores fill with water, roots and soil organisms cannot access oxygen. Together with reduced sunlight, these conditions drop potential cane yields.
Floodwaters have inundated paddocks across the Ingham region, including this farm belonging to QCAR Herbert District Committee Chairman and sugarcane farmer, Matthew Pappin. The Pappins have already suffered financial impacts from having standover cane before dealing with the current flood event. Pictures: Contributed
Research from BSES and CSR showed that for every day the water table was less than 0.5 from the soil surface, cane yields reduced by 0.5 tonnes of cane per hectare.
Over the past three decades, there has been numerous years when flooding significantly impacted the region. They include:

The final crop yields varied significantly based upon the following factors associated with wet weather events:
   • Duration of the flooding event.

   • If sunny days occur while water is still covering the crop, or the crop is standing in water. In this situation, the water becomes very hot, and the crop becomes extremely stressed and, in some cases, dies.
   • Soil type. Generally, clay soils are more prone to waterlogging for long periods of time.
   • Position on the landscape. Higher fields are generally less impacted.
   • The month the flooding occurs in relation to crop growth.
   • The crop height when impacted by flooding. Generally, late harvested cane and drought affected cane is the greatest impacted, due to flooding.
   • The follow up rains post the flooding event, either low or high rainfall. The 1991 crop was impacted by flooding and a sudden stop to the wet season in April, with a subsequent drought leading a very low yielding year.
   • The amount of sunlight received throughout the wet season. The 2024 harvest was a good example of a year when there was low solar radiation to grow the crop leading to low crop yields.
   • Slit loadings on the crop, reducing the crop’s ability to undertake photosynthesis after flooding.
   • Impact on a crop caused by the loss of crop or stool. It is not uncommon for crops to fail or stool to be lost, due to adverse weather events.
   • The lead into the flooding event. Years when rains begin early generally result in lower tonnes harvested, like in 2009 and 2011. However, in 2019 there was good cane growth and better than expected yields due to favourable weather conditions both before and after the flood event.
Generally best yields occur after a succession of dry years in the Herbert; the graph below indicates this.

What will the 2025 crop yield look like?
It is difficult to predict what yield the district may experience this year; however early indications are not positive because of the following:
   • Late conclusion of the 2024 harvest 
   • Standover crops
   • The significant rain events during November and December in 2024, and wet weather harvesting impacting on the following crop. (We also made many ruts in field towards the end of the 2024 crush).
   • Receiving more than 2000mm of rainfall throughout the crops’ growing period thus far.
Looking into our crystal ball, we could expect to harvest a crop in the 3M tonne plus range.
If we have follow-up adverse weather events, it is more likely we will see the more disastrous scenario of fewer than 3M tonnes harvested.
A crop more than 4M tonnes is highly unlikely now, unless we have a miracle. Only time will tell what the 2025 crop harvest will yield.
Estimating the cost of the flood
The Herbert region harvests around 4.5M tonnes of sugarcane annually.
Based on historical data, QCAR estimates the Herbert will experience a loss of between 0.5 to 1M tonnes of cane due to this flooding disaster.
Based on an assumed $50 per tonne of cane, this equates to an economic loss of cane proceeds to the growers of between $25 to $50 million.  
This figure does not consider other losses from damages, repairs, and replanting of crops in some areas – all required actions, and at considerable expense, to ensure a business is again operational.
Lower crop yields, debris in the crop at harvest, infrastructure damage (i.e. to the cane rail network), and necessary repairs to damaged machinery (i.e. from equipment submersed in floodwaters) also impact the harvesting and milling sectors as well as the local business community. They too will need help to revive the sugarcane industry ahead of the 2025 crush.
How do we activate Category D status to unlock disaster funding for farmers?
Category D natural disaster assistance is provided by the Australian government in response to severe disaster events.
It is only provided in extraordinary circumstances and is considered after the assessment of a disaster’s impact.
The Queensland Government Department of Primary Industries (DPI) and Queensland Reconstruction Authority (QRA) undertake the assessment and provide their recommendations to the federal government.
QRA works with the Premier and Cabinet to seek endorsement of each Category C/D request form via the appropriate process, e.g. a Cabinet Budget Review Committee.
If approved, the Premier will then formally request endorsement from the Prime Minister through a letter. (Source: https://www.qra.qld.gov.au/)
The PM advises whether the Category C/D request was fully or partially approved, confirms the cost-sharing ratio between the state and federal governments under the Disaster Recovery Funding Arrangements (DRFA) system, and any conditions that must be met.
QCAR believes the financial losses incurred both in the short term and long term justify the activation of Category D natural disaster assistance and it is prepared to work closely with the authorities to undertake the necessary assessments to make this happen.